One thing I'd emphasize is that the output of the model is relatively unimportant ; as you said, it will be wrong in a few weeks. What matters is regularly revisiting the assumptions with actuals and then revising thinking and activities.
Of course, that assumes you are regularly and systematically capturing the base values. That's the part I often see people miss and, by doing so, much of the value of the model is lost.
Thanks for the great article. You capture something I’ve seen over and over again with early-stage founders. The resistance isn’t to modeling itself, it’s to what modeling usually turns into in practice.
Founders hear “build a model” and end up downloading a template that’s either too generic or too opinionated, spending hours afraid to break formulas, and still walking away without clarity on the questions that actually matter: how long can we survive, what needs to be true in the next 12 months, and whether the business can work at all.
The framing here is spot on: the value of a model at seed isn’t accuracy, it’s learning. Making assumptions explicit, updating them as reality pushes back, and using the gaps as signals rather than surprises.
That exact gap between knowing you should model and having a model that actually supports learning is why I started building Binokl platform for early-stage founders. The goal isn’t to add more complexity, but to keep models structured, understandable, and easy to evolve so founders spend less time maintaining spreadsheets and more time building with confidence that the numbers reflect reality.
Really strong articulation of why postponing this kind of thinking is far riskier than doing it early.
good article, thank you, Emily! just one question about unit economics calculator - retention graph starts from 100% and goes down and no adjustments change that.
We created CapitalSnapshot for this very reason. It helps you get financial clarity by tracking your financial KPIs at all times, helping you create a financial model in minutes and then following through by showing actuals vs forecasts. Feel free to try it at https://app.capitalsnapshot.com/app/auth?mode=register
Hi, I tried to download both but the contentis blocked by the owner :(
Great article, Emily.
One thing I'd emphasize is that the output of the model is relatively unimportant ; as you said, it will be wrong in a few weeks. What matters is regularly revisiting the assumptions with actuals and then revising thinking and activities.
Of course, that assumes you are regularly and systematically capturing the base values. That's the part I often see people miss and, by doing so, much of the value of the model is lost.
Hi Emily,
Thanks for the great article. You capture something I’ve seen over and over again with early-stage founders. The resistance isn’t to modeling itself, it’s to what modeling usually turns into in practice.
Founders hear “build a model” and end up downloading a template that’s either too generic or too opinionated, spending hours afraid to break formulas, and still walking away without clarity on the questions that actually matter: how long can we survive, what needs to be true in the next 12 months, and whether the business can work at all.
The framing here is spot on: the value of a model at seed isn’t accuracy, it’s learning. Making assumptions explicit, updating them as reality pushes back, and using the gaps as signals rather than surprises.
That exact gap between knowing you should model and having a model that actually supports learning is why I started building Binokl platform for early-stage founders. The goal isn’t to add more complexity, but to keep models structured, understandable, and easy to evolve so founders spend less time maintaining spreadsheets and more time building with confidence that the numbers reflect reality.
Really strong articulation of why postponing this kind of thinking is far riskier than doing it early.
Best,
Jevgenij
good article, thank you, Emily! just one question about unit economics calculator - retention graph starts from 100% and goes down and no adjustments change that.
We created CapitalSnapshot for this very reason. It helps you get financial clarity by tracking your financial KPIs at all times, helping you create a financial model in minutes and then following through by showing actuals vs forecasts. Feel free to try it at https://app.capitalsnapshot.com/app/auth?mode=register
the financial doc links don't seem to work?